Analysis of the Spatial Distribution of Flying Fish Catching Areas in the Arafura Sea Oceanographic Parameter Approach Maxent Method

Abstract

_{The analysis of the spatial distribution patterns of flying fish (Hirundichthys oxycephalus) in the Arafura Sea is the main objective of this research, conducted using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) methodology while considering oceanographic aspects. The data used includes the presence points of flying fish and oceanographic parameters such as sea surface temperature and chlorophyll-a concentration obtained from MODIS satellite imagery during the period from December 2023 to May 2024. The research results show that the MaxEnt model has good performance with an Area Under Curve (AUC) value of 0.748. The chlorophyll-a parameter contributes the most to the distribution of flying fish (69.8%) with a permutation importance value of 58.5%, while sea surface temperature contributes 30.2% with a permutation importance value of 41.5%. The potential fishing areas are concentrated in the central part of the Arafura Sea, with 66.10% of the catch points located in the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) zone of 0.5-0.8. Flying fish show a habitat preference in the optimal temperature range of 29-31°C with a presence probability reaching 0.8-0.9. Jackknife analysis confirms that the combination of sea surface temperature and chlorophyll-a parameters produces a more accurate predictive model compared to the use of individual parameters. This predictive model can be used as a reference to optimize flying fish capture activities efficiently and sustainably in the Fisheries Management Area (WPP) 718.}