Analysis of Mangrove Cover Dynamics from 2015 - 2030 Using Dynamic Systems and GIS in the Mahakam River Delta, Kutai Kartanegara Regency, Indonesia

Abstract

Mangrove ecosystems play a crucial ecological role in maintaining coastal stability, yet they continue to experience significant degradation due to both natural and anthropogenic factors. This study analyzes the dynamics of mangrove cover in the Mahakam Delta, Kutai Kartanegara, Indonesia, from 2015 to 2025 and predicts conditions up to 2030 using remote sensing and system dynamics modeling. Landsat 8 OLI imagery was processed through Google Earth Engine to generate yearly mangrove maps, classified using the Random Forest algorithm. Accuracy assessment was performed through confusion matrices, producer/user accuracy, and kappa coefficients. The resulting time-series data were used to calculate annual regeneration and degeneration rates, which were subsequently integrated into a stock–flow system dynamics model using Powersim Studio. Results show that mangrove cover decreased from 2015 to 2020 but increased significantly by 2025, reaching 51,071.37 ha. Simulation outputs indicate a slight positive growth trend, projecting mangrove cover to reach 51,153.14 ha by 2030. These findings suggest that although anthropogenic pressures remain high, natural regeneration and potential restoration efforts contribute to maintaining ecosystem stability. The integration of dynamic modeling and remote sensing provides a comprehensive understanding of mangrove change and supports decision-making for sustainable coastal management.